Digging Beneath Today's Jobs Report of Up 297,000

Everyone wants more jobs, most specifically the 26 million Americans who are unemployed or underemployed. So today's ADP Report noting an increase of a 297,000 jobs for the month of December, 2010 heralded by the mainstream press as (yet another!) recovery turning point, that sent various economists/analysts scratching their heads over their missed estimates (because analysts and economists forecasts of everything are always so right) seems some kind of New Year's Gift. 

Not to suck the air out of the mirth bubble here, but just because I was surprised too, I went to the ADP website to check it out, and compare today's December 2010 report to that of December 2009 (the last month of the year, being particularly retail/sales oriented.)

In short, while it is a more positive report than last year's (compared to a December 2008 report that was abysmal), the increases for private sector gains, remain predominantly service providing sector gains, and not goods producing sector ones, more unleashed by the propensity to spend money, and because of the weak economy, most of it in the form of credit card and other debt, rather than to create anything. And yet, the dollar was stronger on the back of the ADP report, business journalists began chattering about the Fed having to possibly tighten rates sooner rather than later (flip-flop irony, anyone?), and John Boehner is probably figuring out how the GOP can take credit for it all, as the 2012 election campaign gathers steam. 

In terms of the service-providing sector, last December, the ADP noted an addition of 22,000 jobs over November, 2009, so certainly this year's figures look better in terms of absolute additions. Meanwhile, the goods-producing sector shed 83,000 jobs over the same month period last year, again today's look better, but the number of goods-producing jobs are lower than last December (service-providing ones are marginally lower.) The 297,000 jobs increase for December 2010 vs. November 2010 breaks down into:

27,000 more jobs for the goods-producing sector (a loss of 3,000 for small business, a gain of 21,000 for medium, and a gain of 9,000 for large companies) and 270,000 more jobs for the services sector (a gain of 120,000 for small, 123,000 for medium and 27,000 for large companies).  

Though the 27,000 job gain for the goods producing sector puts the overall job count for December higher than that of September through November, it remains at a lower number than say it was throughout 2009 and up through August, 2010. Last December's goods producing sector job figures had trended down throughout the year, and today's figures remain below last year's in terms of people in jobs. (recall, according to Washington and the mainstream medium, the recession had already ended.)

Comments

[sgt_doom]

There's a solid, but perhaps as yet unannounced reason, for the sudden increase: a number of those robo-signers of those fraudulent affidavits (still a felony under the law, assuming it's ever enforced in America!) turned out to be long deceased; as in over ten years dead.

The banksters had to suddenly hire bunches of temp workers, which is denoted in that 200,000 plus sudden increase in employment.

[Nomi Prins]

thanks for that info - and that would of course, go under the services provided category - as in literally combing through the ashes ...