Check out Morris Berman's Debut Novel, Destiny

As some of you know, I'm a huge fan of my prolific friend, Morris Berman's, books and ideas. His non-fiction work is punchy, no-bullshit and the kind of thought-provoking material that sticks in your mind for days.

Now, his first novel, Destiny is finally out! (Full disclosure, I saw this book in earlier drafts, and it literally altered my way of making several life choices this past year.)

If you've ever wanted to totally change your life, or live someone else's life, or wondered what would happen if you did (and I mean, who hasn't?) you'll be captivated by the three interrelated stories in Destiny, and the plights of their cross-roads-facing characters.

In the first story,  La Vita Nuova, a middle-aged man discovers a unique and whimsical way to travel through parallel universes and time, only to find there may be no such thing as a perfect moment and place. It's a compelling, philosophical depiction of the dilemmas in my favorite TV show, Fringe. The second story, The Observer, is about a neurotic woman who imagines her alternate path into existence without realizing it. The third story, The Seven Deadly Sins, captures the  free will and unexpected love themes of the latest Matt Damon flick, The Adjustment Bureau. A high-school science teacher becomes, quite by accident, a best-selling novelist, and also quite accidently and independently, finds meaning and happiness. (Plus, if anyone out there has had any frustrations regarding the writing profession - and  I mean, who hasn't? -the story's inspirational.)

Destiny is a fast-paced, terrific read! Check it out.

If Spin were Reality - We'd have a Recovery

Wouldn't it be awesome if spin could actually solve problems? Then, you could just say the word 'recovery' every time you gave a speech, ignore any negative data, assume the markets are up because of general economic health and not a mass infusion of cheap money, and it would be so.

It wouldn't matter that New Home Sales are at their lowest rate since reporting began in 1962.

It would be fine that Existing Home Sales (the number of completed transactions) were down 9.6% over the month, and 2.8% since last year.

It would be cool that Pending Home Sales were down 2.8% over the month, and 1.5% over the year.

It would be a symptom of recovery that the average Sale Price for non-foreclosed homes is $246,358  - below 2003 levels, and for foreclosed homes, is $169,965.

It would just be a coincidence that 39% of homes sold in February were distressed (sold at a discount), many of those to investors, not to end-home-dwellers, up from 35% last February.

It wouldn't have anything to do with people's housing situations, that Realty Trac, 'the leading foreclosure online market' maintains a top ten 'Hot' foreclosure property states list. (Ohio leads the list, with a 43% 'foreclosure savings' rate for 'investing' in a foreclosed property vs. paying up for a non-foreclosed one.)

You could be the Treasury department, and announce an 'orderly' sell program to get rid of 'up to' $10 billion per month of your $142 billion agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities portfolio (and yes, you would still be backing the agencies guaranteeing those securities which has nothing to do with propping up their value) - the one you bought as part of a multi-trillion financial market bailout, ur 'stabilization' program - when you became a hedge fund on behalf of the taxpayers. You wouldn't have to mention, ANYWHERE, IN ANY SPEECH, ANYTHING about the $4.1 trillion of Treasury and other government debt you issued since September, 2008, because, what's $4 trillion when you're stabilizing the market - on behalf of the taxpayers.

You could be a mega bank, with a CEO that is also a Class-A NY Fed director (or Jamie Dimon) and impress your new soon-to-be-higher-dividend-receiving shareholders, with your ability to reduce loan loss provisions, and it wouldn't have anything to do with accounting rules that don't require you to acknowledge the tremendous gap between the notional value of your loans, and their underlying collateral (the real home values) or Fed support.

You could be a mega bank (as say, above), pass your second stress test with flying colors, be assured by the Fed that no details of the test will be disclosed, and act coy about whether you want to disclose them or not. 

You could be the Fed Chairman, and disregard the idea of inflation, because if you don't count the cost of food or gas or health insurance or clothes or anything else sporting a price that has inflated, there is no inflation, and you can carry on buying, holding or subsidizing, the various forms of debt sustaining the 'recovery'.

Well, actually, if you looked at the housing market or the financial condition of the majority of borrowers, there wouldn't be any inflation. Maybe spin is reality. But, let me know if I'm missing something.

Silver's Rise

I did an interview with Germany's investigative reporter, Lars Schall, last week. We covered everything from the Middle East Uprisings to Oil Prices to Silver Prices to the still weak global economy. He put the transcript up on his website yesterday. Here's the tidbit on silver, given today's continued hike in that metal:

Question: In general, do you think both metals (silver and gold) will go much higher?

Answer: Yes, I think they will. There is a fundamental weakness in the global economy. There is a fundamental weakness in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, President Obama, and Treasury Secretary Geithner are all talking about this recovery we are supposed to be in. Apparently, to them, we have been in a recovery since the middle of 2009, but real individuals don’t see that. The less they are finding jobs, the longer they are out of jobs, the more expensive it is to buy food, gas, and other basic items, including their health care, and the more people facing foreclosures amidst the month of lowest housing prices since this ‘recovery’ officially started, the more apparent it is, that we aren’t in a recovery.

We are in a weak, not a stable, situation despite all this talk. The dollar is weak, and that takes money out of the pockets of for instance, Americans, that pay more for imported items, and get less on exporting them. Also, our Treasury debt has gone up from $5.4 to $9.4 trillions in two years, that is an exceptional amount and increase. This is debt with which the government buys its own currency and circularly, its own debt, but it doesn’t get out into the real economy. As long as that is the case, as long as the economy is weak and immense debt is used to prop the dollar, and as long as there exists speculative capital seeking somewhat sure investments, at least short-term, the metal market will continue to go up. There might be days where it comes down on profit taking or other reasons, but in general it will climb higher.

The rest of the interview is here. What do you guys think?