Oscar thoughts for tonight

It's pretty tough to live in Hollywood and not have dozens of conversations about which of the big studio films will garner the most awards, and since I do love films, for what it's worth - here are my hopes/predictions:

What are yours? 

Picture: The King's Speech (For: the combination of history/characters connecting beyond their social class)

Director: Tom Hooper (For: bringing out the above, though Fincher will probably win for The Social Network)

Actress: Natalie Portman (For: an emotional performance)

Actor: Colin Firth (For: a masterful performance, years of fine acting, and being very easy to look at)

Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham-Carter (For: the nominations she's had and lost, and her subtle, understated performance)

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (For: character immersion, and the audience reactions when I saw the Fighter screened at the Director's Guild before the Sag awards)

Original Screenplay: Inception (For: Being creatively brilliant and inspiring debate amongst viewers)

Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network (For: The Larry Summers scene)

Animated Feature: Toy Story 3 (For: My nephew)

Art Direction: Inception (For: Being captivating)

Cinematography: Inception (For: The same)

Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland (For: bringing my Lewis Carroll obsession to life)

Documentary (Feature): Inside Job (For: capturing the true seediness/greed beneath the crisis)

Documentary (Short Subject): Poster Girl (For: the emotion/irrevocability that lingers post our wars and because Sara Neeson is awesome)

Film Editing: The Fighter (For: Pamela and gritty evocation)

Foreign-Language Film: Outside the Law (For: the struggle for liberation of Algeria, especially given where we are today)

Makeup: The Way Back (For: what happens to faces in the most intense of weather conditions/political oppression)

Music (Original Score): The King's Speech (For: the classics)

Music (Original Song): I See the Light

Short Film (Animated): The Gruffalo

Short Film (Live Action): The Confession

Sound Editing: Inception

Sound Mixing: Inception

Visual Effects: Inception